Apr. 25, 2024


陣内了 (一橋大学経済研究所教授), 土田悟司 (日本銀行), 山本庸平 (一橋大学経済学研究科教授)

Bubble Expectations and Economic Growth in Japan

Ryo Jinnai (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University,Japan), Satoshi Tsuchida (Bank of Japan), Yohei Yamamoto (Department of Economics, Hitotsubashi University,Japan)


 日本経済の「失われた30 年」をもたらした要因の一つとして既存研究とは異なる視点を提供する.まず,平成バブルの崩壊以後も,日本経済にはバブル再発生への期待が存在し続けていたことをデータを使って示す.次に,バブル発生への期待が投資のクラウディングアウト効果を生むことを理論的に示す.このメカニズムが日本経済の成長に重しであった可能性を議論する.

 This study offers a new perspective on Japan’s “lost decades.” We first argue that, even after the collapse of the Heisei bubble, the revival of a bubble economy is not always a remote possibility, but is occasionally even considered likely. We further argue that, theoretically, expectations of future bubbles generate a crowding-out effect on investments. Based on these observations, we argue that this crowding-out effect emanating from bubble expectations may have been a headwind to economic growth during the lost decades.

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書誌情報Bibliographic information

Vol. 75, No. 1, 2024
Article Number: er.ar.032724
DOI (Link to J-STAGE): https://doi.org/10.60328/keizaikenkyu.er.ar.032724
JEL Classification Codes: E44,G12,O40