Jul. 15, 2004
ロシアにおける1990年代の人口・年金危機―移行経済の世代間利害調整に関する予備的考察―
Russia's Demographic and Pension Crises in the 1990s -A Preliminary Observation on Inter-generational Equity Problems in Transition Countries-
要旨Abstract
本稿は、1990年代のロシアにおいて、高インフレ下で生産危機と平行して進行した人口と年金の危機的状況を統計的ないしは制度的に分布することを目的としている。人口危機に焦点を定めたパート１では、今後予想される長期人口のスタートを早期化したのもとして1990年代人口危機を位置付け、その統計的内容を国際比較の中で明らかにする。危機による早死男性人口数は1992-2000年で約200万人にのぼると推定される。従属人口指数（比率）からみた年金負担の動向と見通しにも言及する。年金危機を取り扱うパート２では、1990年代にロシアの年金は大幅に低下し、最低生存費をわずかに上回る程度で推移したことを実証する。これには、従属比率が極めて高いこと、国家の管理が弛緩するなかで実際の保険料率が低いこと、インフレに対するスライド制を著しく弱めるような年金算定方法がとられたことなどが影響した。
This paper intends to develop an analysis of demographic and pension crises of Russia in the early transition period in order to clarify perspectives on the configuration of inter-generational equity problems in Russia. This paper consists of the following two parts: Part 1 focuses on the Russian demographic crisis in the 1990s, which derived from marked declines in male life expectancy and national birth-mortality ratio. Part 1 develops further a comparative analysis of Russia's demographic situation by employing the results and prospects shown by the official and international population statistics. Based on the 1990 mortality schedule, part 1 also provides an estimate that there were 2 million premature male deaths during 1991-2000, equivalent to 20% of all male deaths. Although the crisis cost much and restoring the loss due to the crisis will be very difficult, it decreased the pension burden during the period and will continue to dampen the burden up to 2015. Part 2 focuses on Russia's pension crisis in the 1990s. The pension crisis of Russia during the period was characterized by extremely low level of pension allowance, barely above the subsistence minimum. This was explained, first, by the high system dependency ratio, too high to maintain the PAYG system. Second, the actual contribution rate has been low, due to the loose control over contribution payments. Other reasons arose from the tricky methods of pension calculation that were devised by the government to evade full indexation to inflation. Owing to the recent economic recovery, a substantial pension reform, including a funded scheme, started at last from the beginning of 2002.
書誌情報Bibliographic information
Vol. 53, No. 3, 2002 , pp. 247-267
HERMES-IR（一橋大学機関リポジトリ）: https://doi.org/10.15057/21865
