Oct. 25, 2006
財政政策の非ケインジアン効果―県別データによる検証―
A Non-Keynesian Effect of Fiscal Policy -Evidence from Data on Japanese Prefectures-
要旨Abstract
本稿ではわが国の県別個人消費データを用いて財政政策の非ケインジアン効果仮説を検証する．非ケインジアン効果仮説によれば，県別の個人消費は，（1）国の財政事情に問題がない時期には各県の租税負担割合に左右されないが，（2）財政状況の悪い時期には租税負担の高い県の個人消費が他県に比べ低くなるはずである．1955-2001年度の県別データを用いて推計した結果，財政悪化期に租税負担の高い県の消費が相対的に低下する傾向が存在し，統計的に有意であることが確認された．この傾向は，地価の変動や雇用情勢の変化など県別消費の分布に影響を及ぼす可能性のあるその他の要因をコントロールしても変わらない．本稿の分析結果は，非ケインジアン効果が1990年代後半以降の消費低迷の一因である可能性を示唆している．
We examine a non-Keynesian effect of fiscal policy using Japanese prefectural consumption data. Based on this non-Keynesian effect hypothesis, an important characteristic can be pointed out. When the national financial position is good, the consumption by prefecture does not dependent on the ratio of the national tax burden on the prefecture to the national average burden per capita. However, when the economy becomes unhealthy, the people of prefectures where national tax burden is relatively high consume less than those where the burden is low. We find that the people who pay higher national taxes tend to cut consumption significantly in times of financial aggravation. Moreover, this result does not change even if we account for other factors, such as land price and employment risk, which are considered to affect consumption. This evidence leads us to the conclusion that such a non-Keynesian effect is one of the causes of consumption depression in Japan in the latter 1990s.
書誌情報Bibliographic information
Vol. 55, No. 4, 2004 , pp. 313-327
HERMES-IR（一橋大学機関リポジトリ）: https://doi.org/10.15057/21706
