Jul. 25, 2006
日本の生産性と経済成長―産業レベル・企業レベルデータによる実証分析―
Japan's Productivity and Economic Growth -An Empirical Analysis Based on Industry-Level and Firm-Level Data-
要旨Abstract
本論文では，内閣府経済社会総合研究所の『日本の潜在成長力の研究』ユニットで著者が他の研究者と共同で開発した『日本産業生産性データベース（Japan Industrial Productivity Database, JIPデータベース）』や『企業活動基本調査』個票データをもとに，日本のTFP 上昇率の最近の低迷がどのような原因で生じているかを探った．分析により，以下の結果を得た．近年のTFP上昇率の低迷は，非製造業まで含めた資本設備の稼働率下落によって，一部説明できるが，これを調整しても特に製造業においてTFP上昇率の低迷が著しい．一方非製造業では，規制緩和が進んだ産業を中心にTFP上昇率の加速が観察された．また製造業を営む企業の個票データを用いた分析により，退出効果がマイナス（生産性の高い企業が退出し，低い企業が存続する）という現象が90年代に観察された．このような市場の「新陳代謝機能の低下」と新規参入率の低下が日本の製造業の生産性低迷の原因の一つである可能性が高い．我々はまた，存続企業のTFPの変動を，規模効果，稼働率変動効果，および技術進歩に分解した．その結果，企業レベルで稼働率の変動や規模効果を調整した場合でも，技術進歩率の下落が多くの産業で観察された．
Using industry-level data of the Japan Industrial Productivity Database (JIP Database) and firm-level data of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry's Basic Survey of Enterprises, we investigate the causes of the recent slowdown in Japan's total factor productivity (TFP) growth. We show that as Japan moved from the 1980s to the 1990s, there was a substantial change in the pattern of sectoral TFP growth: while TFP growth decelerated in many manufacturing industries, it picked up in non-manufacturing industries. In the 1990s, substantial deregulation measures were implemented in non-manufacturing sectors especially in communication, wholesale and retail trade, and finance, insurance and real estate, and it seems that these policies have contributed to the acceleration in TFP growth in these industries.
Regarding the poor performance of the manufacturing sector in the 1990s, our decomposition analysis based on firm-level data finds that the following three factors seem to have contributed to the low level of TFP growth. First, new entry was very limited. Second, the exit effect was negative, that is, the average TFP level of exiting firms was higher than that of remaining firms. And third, the reallocation effect on resources was small.
By estimating a firm-level cost function, we also decompose the change in each firm's TFP growth into the following three factors: scale economy effects, effects of changes in capacity utilization, and technological progress. This analysis suggests that technological progress has slowed down in many manufacturing industries in the 1990s.
書誌情報Bibliographic information
Vol. 55, No. 3, 2004 , pp. 261-281
HERMES-IR（一橋大学機関リポジトリ）: https://doi.org/10.15057/21886
