大震災と企業行動のダイナミクス

植杉威一郎 (一橋大学経済研究所), 内田浩史 (神戸大学), 内野泰助 (大東文化大学), 小野有人 (みずほ総合研究所), 間真実 (一橋大学大学院), 細野薫 (学習院大学・財務省), 宮川大介 (日本政策投資銀行)

Natural Disasters and Firm Dynamics

Iichiro Uesugi (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University), Hirofumi Uchida (Graduate School of Business Administration, Kobe University), Taisuke Uchino (Graduate School of Economics, Daito Bunka University), Arito Ono (Mizuho Research Institute), Makoto Hazama (Graduate Student of Economics, Hitotsubashi University), Kaoru Hosono (Faculty of Economics, Gakushuin University, Ministry of Finance), Daisuke Miyakawa (Development Bank of Japan)

要旨Abstract

　本稿は，1995年1月に発生した阪神・淡路大震災の被災地において企業が受けた被害と回復の過程について分析する．最大で約９万社の個別企業データを用い，震災が企業の存続と倒産に与えた影響,震災が企業移転に与えた影響,震災後の被災企業による復旧・復興のための設備投資に関する3つの分野に関して，ファクトファインディングを行う．主な結果は以下の通りである．第一に，被災地金融機関と取引関係にあった被災地企業において，震災後の倒産確率が有意に上昇する．第二に，被災地では産業集積の進んでいた地域に立地していた企業ほど移転率が高まるが，約1/3の企業の移転距離は1kmに満たない.第三に，被災地金融機関と取引関係があった被災地企業では，設備投資の増加幅が抑制されている．

　This paper focuses on the Kobe Earthquake which occurred in January 1995 and examines the damage on firms and the recovery process that followed. Using a dataset of about 90,000 firms, we implement a fact-finding study on exits, relocations, and recovery investment and show the following. First, damaged firms that transacted with banks in the earthquake-affected area were more likely to go bankrupt than non-damaged firms. Second, damaged firms in industry agglomerations were more likely to relocate themselves from their original locations than damaged firms located outside of such agglomerations. Note, however, that relocation distances among damaged firms were small, that is, one-third of these relocated firms moved less than 1 kilometer. Third, the amount of capital investment increase for damaged firms that transacted with banks in the earthquake-affected area was significantly smaller than for damaged firms that did not.

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書誌情報Bibliographic information

Vol. 64, No. 2, 2013 , pp. 97-118
HERMES-IR（一橋大学機関リポジトリ）: https://doi.org/10.15057/25883
JEL Classification Codes: E22, G21, G33, Q54