Oct. 25, 2018
危機と復興の移行経済 －－マクロ経済成長決定要因のメタ分析－－
Determinants of Decline and Growth in Transition Economies: A Meta-Analysis of the Transition Literature
要旨Abstract
中東欧・旧ソ連諸国は，社会主義体制崩壊直後に激しい経済危機に陥り，その後穏やかな復興を遂げたという意味で，例外なくＪカーブ型成長経路を歩んだ．しかし，経済危機の深度や復興速度には顕著な差異も存在する．本稿は，構造変化，体制移行政策，社会主義の遺制，インフレーション及び地域紛争の効果サイズと統計的有意性のメタ分析を通じて，かかるＪカーブ型成長経路創発メカニズムの解明を試みた．先行研究123点から抽出した3279推定結果を用いたメタ統合は，構造変化と体制移行政策の成長促進効果は，有意だが軽微であるのに対して，インフレーションと地域紛争は，極めて有意かつ強力な成長抑制効果を発揮したことを明らかにした．社会主義の遺制も，構造変化や体制移行政策と同水準の効果サイズと有意性を以て，移行初期の生産低下を助長した可能性が高い．公表バイアスの検証も，メタ統合の分析結果を強く支持した．
The economies of Central East European and former Soviet states have experienced catastrophic downturns in the first years of transition to the market economy and moderate recovery in the aftermath of the crisis. Previous studies, however, do not clarify the reasons why the transition economies followed a J-shaped path of macroeconomic decline and growth without exception. Aiming to illustrate the mechanism, we conducted a meta-analysis of the transition literature that empirically examined the determinants of macroeconomic growth in transition economies. The results of meta-synthesis of collected estimates indicate that hyperinflation and regional conflicts were strong factors causing the economic crisis during the initial period of transition, while the changes in socio-economic structure and the transformation policies had weaker effects on economic growth. We also found that the economies with heavier socialist legacies were forced to face deeper economic decline, if other conditions are equal.
書誌情報Bibliographic information
Vol. 67, No. 4, 2016 , pp. 326-338
HERMES-IR（一橋大学機関リポジトリ）: https://doi.org/10.15057/28205
JEL Classification Codes: E31, O47, O57, P20, P21
