Jul. 27, 2023
感染症の歴史から何を学ぶか？ －－明治大正期の日本の経験を踏まえて－－
What We Learn from History of Pandemics?: Lessons from the Late 19th through the Early 20th Century in Japan
要旨Abstract
本稿では，感染症流行の社会的，経済的影響について歴史的観点からの整理を試みるとともに，現代への含意を探る．その際，近代日本における感染症流行とその対応，とりわけ百年前のインフルエンザ流行を振り返るとともに，人間の営みが外的なショックへの対応に大きな影響を与えた感染症流行以外の事例も振り返る．疫学的にみると共通する面が多い感染症であっても，社会や経済に与える影響は大きく異なり得る．百年前のインフルエンザ流行に際しては，経済活動を抑制して流行を抑える措置はほとんど実施されず，特段の経済対策の発動もなかったのに対して，今回は，社会的距離等に関する措置が経済活動を縮小させ，これへの対応が政策上の論点となっている．当時と現代とで感染症流行の社会的，経済的影響が異なる背景として，この間の歴史的経緯に伴う社会的規範の変化が挙げられる．歴史から教訓を引き出すにあたっては，政策や行動の基準に関わる規範的な課題と，基準に基づく目標の実現に関わる実証的な課題とに分けて考えることが有用である．
In this paper, I review social and economic influences of pandemics from a historical perspective to derive implications for today. First, the paper focuses on pandemics in modern Japan, especially the influenza pandemic a century ago. Next, the focus turns to phenomena other than pandemics to explore other examples of human agents affecting responses to external shocks. The history shows that epidemiologically kindred diseases may have different impacts on a society and an economy. Facing the influenza pandemic a century ago, the Japanese government applied virtually no policy measures to curb the pandemic by choking off economic activities. Hence, no economic stimulus was offered to cope with an economic downturn. Today, social distancing measures and quasi lockdowns to suppress COVID-19 have brought about severe economic contractions calling for huge fiscal support. Two similar pandemics striking roughly a century apart have brought about very different social and economic impacts, largely due to changes in social norms. When we derive historical lessons from pandemics, it is useful to distinguish normative and positive modes of analyses: the former to set a standard for a policy/action, and the latter to evaluate the outcome of the policy/action.
書誌情報Bibliographic information
Vol. 72, No. 3, 2021 , pp. 209-227
HERMES-IR（一橋大学機関リポジトリ）: https://doi.org/10.15057/71967
JEL Classification Codes: H51, I18, I38, N35
