Jan. 22, 2023
国際貿易及び海外直接投資に対する社会的紐帯の誘引効果 －－中東欧・旧ソ連諸国の実証研究に関するメタ分析－－
The Effect of Social Ties' Attraction on International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment: A Meta-Analysis of the Empirical Studies of Central and Eastern European and Former Soviet Union Countries
要旨Abstract
本稿は，中東欧・旧ソ連諸国における国際貿易及び海外直接投資(FDI)の決定要因として，言語，移民，歴史などの観点から社会的な関係性を広く表現した社会的紐帯に焦点を当て，先行研究が披露する実証結果を統合・鳥瞰するとともに，メタ回帰分析と呼ばれる手法を用いて，研究間の異質性を決定付ける要因や公表バイアスの可能性を検証した．その結果，社会的紐帯変数，とりわけ言語・移民関連変数には確かに貿易・FDI誘引効果は存在するものの，公表バイアスの問題を越えて真の効果が検出された他の決定要因と比べて，その効果サイズは小さいことが判明した．それゆえ，国際経済関係における社会的紐帯の経済的効果を強調することは，その過大評価をもたらす恐れがあるため，慎重に解釈すべき問題である．
In this paper, we focus on social ties—social relationships based on the amalgamation of history, culture, people, language, and other factors over long periods of time—as a determinant of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. As a result of the meta-analysis of studies that empirically examine the economic impacts of proxy variables for these social ties upon trade and FDI performance over the past quarter century, we find that the existing literature reports a statistically significant nonzero attraction effect as a whole, and especially a genuine effect is confirmed for language- and immigrant-related variables beyond the publication selection bias. At the same time, their effective size is very small as compared to those of other trade and FDI determinants, with each genuine effect detected as well by meta-analysis. This suggests that we should deliberately approach this issue to avoid an overestimation of the trade and FDI attraction effect of social ties in the area.
書誌情報Bibliographic information
Vol. 72, No. 1, 2021 , pp. 59-80
HERMES-IR（一橋大学機関リポジトリ）: https://doi.org/10.15057/71065
JEL Classification Codes: F14, F21, F23, P33
