将来予測とうつ・不安・幸福度との関係 －－コロナ禍におけるパネルデータ形式のアンケート調査による検証－－
Associations Between Future Expectations and Emotion-Related Variables such as Depression, Anxiety, and Happiness: Exploration Using a Panel Data Survey During the COVID-19 Pandemic
要旨Abstract
将来予測が感情の影響を受ける，あるいはその反対に，感情が将来予測の影響を受けることを指摘する研究が心理学を中心に多く生まれている．本稿では，2020年から2021年にかけての新型コロナウイルスの蔓延時において，3か月後の世帯収入の増減の予測，東京五輪が2021年夏に開催されるか否かの予測，2021年9月に新型コロナウイルスが終息する確率の予測がうつ・不安・幸福度と関係を有するか否かを検証した．独立行政法人経済産業研究所で行われた5回（2020年10月，2021年1月，4月，7月，10月）にわたるパネルデータ形式のインターネットアンケート調査の結果が分析に用いられた．固定効果モデルによる重回帰分析を主たる分析手法とした．分析の結果によれば，うつや不安の傾向が強い人々や幸福度の低い人々は3か月後の世帯収入が減ると予測しやすかった．一方，これらの指標と東京五輪の開催予測の間には有意な関係が見られなかった．新型コロナウイルスの終息確率については，幸福度が高いほど終息確率を高く見積もる傾向が見られたが，不安については有意な関係は見られず，うつについては10％有意水準でうつの程度が大きいほど新型コロナウイルスの終息確率の予測値が高くなる傾向が見られた．
Many psychological studies note that emotions and future expectations influence each other, suggesting that those who have positive (negative) feelings are more likely to have optimistic (pessimistic) future expectations. To explore whether these relationships have been observed in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic, we examine whether emotion-related variables, such as depression, generalized anxiety, and happiness, are associated with the following three future expectations. Expectations of household income in the following three months, expectations of whether the once-postponed Tokyo 2020 Olympics and Paralympics Games would be held in the summer of 2021 as rescheduled, and the subjective probability that the COVID-19 pandemic would be over by September 2021. Data from an original longitudinal online survey in five waves (October 2020, January 2021, April 2021, July 2021, and October 2021) covering 16,642 participants have been used for analyses. The data are analyzed using fixed effects panel regression models. The results show that people with higher levels of depression and anxiety and lower levels of happiness are more likely to expect a decline in household income in the following three months. No significant association was found between these emotion-related variables and expectations that the Tokyo Olympics would be rescheduled. Those with higher levels of happiness were more likely to indicate higher subjective probability of the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. Unexpectedly, those with a higher level of depression were more likely to indicate a higher subjective probability of the end of the COVID-19 pandemic at the 10％ significance level.
書誌情報Bibliographic information
Vol. 73, No. 4, 2022 , pp. 343-357
HERMES-IR（一橋大学機関リポジトリ）: https://hdl.handle.net/10086/74343
JEL Classification Codes: D84, D91, E71, G41
