Oct. 23, 2022
内戦下の暴力とリスク・時間選好 －－パキスタン北西部の事例より－－
Violence during Civil War, Risk Preference, and Time Preference: Evidence from North-West Pakistan
要旨Abstract
内戦からの復興過程にある開発途上国において，内戦下で暴力を経験したことは，様々な影響を残している可能性がある．そこで本稿は，リスク選好と時間選好に焦点を当て，内戦を経て2018年に中央政府の統治下に移行したパキスタン北西部の事例について分析する．分析に用いるのは，2018年から19年にかけて収集した独自の質問票調査から得た約2,800名のミクロデータである．分析結果からは，内戦暴力被害を受けた場合にリスク回避度が高く現在バイアスが強くなること，リスク回避度については，多様な暴力を受けている場合や，本人だけでなく家族も被害を受けている場合にその傾向が顕著になること，リスク・時間選好ともに，教育水準が低い場合に，その傾向が強いことなどが明らかになった．
How does the exposure to violence during civil war affect citizen’s life during the recovery process? As one of these influences of wartime violence, we analyze citizens’ time and risk preferences for the case of north-west Pakistan where a decades-long civil war ended and tribal autonomy was converted into the governance by the central state of Pakistan. Using micro data of approximately 2,800 respondents collected in a unique survey conducted in 2018-19, we found that respondents who were exposed to violence during the civil war had higher risk aversion and present bias. The tendency for risk aversion is stronger among those who experienced multiple types of violence and whose family members also suffered from the violence. The correlation of risk aversion/present bias with violence exposure was higher among less educated respondents than among more educated respondents.
書誌情報Bibliographic information
Vol. 71, No. 4, 2020 , pp. 317-332
HERMES-IR（一橋大学機関リポジトリ）: https://doi.org/10.15057/70079
JEL Classification Codes: D74, D92, H56, O12
